![]() Work out Clause B in the same manner as for Clause A. Now you have your probability for Clause A. Now multiply those two values together per the rules for an AND probability. Now work out Clause A by figuring the odds for at least one Spark on turn 1, then for at least one Spark on turn 2 (and be sure to reduce the total number of Sparks in the deck to 2 for the second part, because you’re assuming you pulled one of them on turn 1). Start by breaking this down into separate AND and OR clauses:Ĭlause A: (1x Spark on turn 1 AND 1x Spark on turn 2)Ĭlause B: (1x Spark on turn 1 AND 1x Extra Sharp on turn 2) You can use the same basic formulas for AND or OR probabilities to figure the odds of any number of events occurring in any combination of AND or OR clauses.įor example, you want to know the probability of having two Sparks on the board by turn 2 or of having one Spark with an Extra Sharp on it by turn 2. In this case, you simply ADD the two probabilities together, then divide by 2.Ĥ – How to calculate probabilities for any combination of AND and OR scenarios Per the 3rd bullet above, it’s very easy to calculate the probability of card A OR card B, either on the same turn or different turns. The result is the probability that you’ll actually land card X on turn 2 AND ALSO land card Y on turn 4. The result is your probability for BOTH events occurring.įor example, use the calculator to get the probability for card X on turn 2, then do it again for card Y on turn 4, and then multiply those two probabilities together. The calculator itself can tell you that by simply using 2 or 3 for the D value.īut what if you want to know the probability for drawing something like “at least one copy of card X on turn 2” AND “at least one copy of card Y on turn 4”? To figure this, you simply multiply the probability for one event against the probability for the other event. ![]() ![]() Per the second bullet above, it’s very easy to calculate the probability of card A AND card B, either on the same turn or different turns.įirst, understand that this is different from the probability of having two or three of the *same* card by a given turn. this is the golden key that all the tourney MtG players use to build their decks. You folks looking for a leg up on building a high-probability deck: there ya go. ![]()
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